Should I roll? A mini garapon guide.

here's what I do to determine if I should roll. just use the at least 1 probability formula. I use it to determine if a 5x is worth it. basically what this formula does is calculate the probability of an event to happen at least once withing a given amount of trials. ex. let's say an earthquake has a .003% chance of occurring withing the next 500 days, basically you're trying to find out the the probability of it happening at least once.

feel free to correct me on this one but i think the formula is:

Spoiler:

just for example
Cupid garapon:
10 golds
11 silver
5 blues

26 balls in total

ex. I want a at least one gold, what is the probability of me getting at least one gold on a 5x.

1-(16/26)^5 = 91.17%

this is most likely the reason why people are more likely to get superflies on a 5x

keep in mind that you can use this formula to determine not just gold but the chance to get a certain bot.

let's say I only want bikini Ouka, Bikini Ivis, and Bikini Eve.

1-(23/26)^5 = 45.82%

keep in mind that on the other garapons there's a surprise system that eliminates lower tier prizes like reds and blues. so that just simply increases your base chances. you can go from like 26 balls to like 18(although for cupid gara, there is no surprise system D:)

also remember the number of trials is easily changeable, let's say you wanna do 2 5x rolls, simply change the 5 to a 10

so for the 2 bikini moes example

1-(23/26)^10 = 70.65% to get at least one of those 3

feel free to share your personal rates down below.

tbh I wanted 10 bots from that cupid gara so here's my personal rate cuz i was only planning on doing just 1 5x roll

1-(16/26)^10 = 91.17% to get at least one of the bots I wanted.

if you have any questions feel free to comment, pm, or message me ingame.

You aren't taking into account that there are different percentage chances for different ball tiers and that changes from garapon to garapon, as manipulated by CS. (EX: Sugoi gara and other garapons had shit rates for golds.)

You are also not taking into account the bonus / penalty for rank.

There are too many variables to calculate a chance without data from players that are at or near your rank.

P.S. ~ Save your shit for New Year's Garapon! CS is trying to trick people into emptying their RT supplies in the weeks preceding it so that NYG comes and people charge moar RT.

AnTi90d wrote:

You aren't taking into account that there are different percentage chances for different ball tiers and that changes from garapon to garapon, as manipulated by CS. (EX: Sugoi gara and other garapons had shit rates for golds.)

You are also not taking into account the bonus / penalty for rank.

There are too many variables to calculate a chance without data from players that are at or near your rank.

P.S. ~ Save your shit for New Year's Garapon! CS is trying to trick people into emptying their RT supplies in the weeks preceding it so that NYG comes and people charge moar RT.

Why does everyone assume there's going to be a god-tier NY Gara? They did it once, last year. However, I'd save RT just in case; the relevant garapons should still be around, when they release Xmas/NY Gara.

ACCESSING THIS SITE ON A DUMBPHONE WITH A MOBILE BROWSER IS SUFFERING!

KidGlitch wrote:

Why does everyone assume there's going to be a god-tier NY Gara? They did it once, last year.

NY 2011 - Suzeku, Psycho Cluster, Hatigarm ASLT and Pacifar BR

NY 2012 - Icy, Leos, Dracken and Mediger

NY 2013 - Brave Lios, Muscle Victor, Eris, Resha, Ult Monica and K Kagura

How could C$ pass up another opportunity to coerce Xmas cash out of the hands of their players?

Spoiler:

Are you sure? cuz those all seem like myths to me cuz I still always get what I want and i'm way past the point where rates automatically become shit for my rank. I say it's all pure luck and knowing when to roll. psh new years gara, lol it's gonna be another mega garapon; Limited garapons > all garapons

I wouldn't consider the first two particularly godly, not in the way most people think. Not much autoplay, gimmicks aren't particularly gimmicky, and the first one doesn't even have Moebots; those are the 3 major things that sell well for CS, hence the popularity of Resha/Eris, which are all 3 wrapped up in a nice, OP-as-fuck package.

Sure, a handful of experienced players would recognize the awesome that is Pacifar BR, but, realistically, the things in the first 2 garas don't sell in the obscene way that those in the 3rd do.

It sets the precedent that C$ instroduces new bots around the beginning of the year.

Each of those old garapons had things that aren't game changing, now.. but, at the time, were very powerful and helped to shape the metas of the day.

KidGlitch wrote:

I wouldn't consider the first two particularly godly, not in the way most people think.

In 2011, those were godly.

They do it every time, release something for Christmas then turn around and top it off at New Years to grab any money from people they didn't want to spend at their first go.

Used well, absolutely, but would you say that they were on par with Resha/Eris? I'm not debating the fact that those were very good bots for the time, I'm debating the fact that they aren't in line with the level of evil that is Resheris Break, and thus do not serve as a precedent.

That being said, I might be being too analytical here, my thought processes tend to be very strange to most people, and explaining them invariably confuses both me and some element of the populace I am attempting to explain to. Believe it or not, I actually assigned values to estimated sales for each of these garapons and then ran them through an equation in my head in order to reach the conclusion I did. If you'd like, I could post the equation, but I don't really think that's what you want.

KidGlitch wrote:

Used well, absolutely, but would you say that they were on par with Resha/Eris? I'm not debating the fact that those were very good bots for the time, I'm debating the fact that they aren't in line with the level of evil that is Resheris Break, and thus do not serve as a precedent.

That being said, I might be being too analytical here, my thought processes tend to be very strange to most people, and explaining them invariably confuses both me and some element of the populace I am attempting to explain to. Believe it or not, I actually assigned values to estimated sales for each of these garapons and then ran them through an equation in my head in order to reach the conclusion I did. If you'd like, I could post the equation, but I don't really think that's what you want.

Every NY Gara has been pretty good. Resha/Eris are the outliers to the bunch, and subtracting them still left 2013 NY Gara with a very good lineup.

No bots in the past that gara were initium tier. Those bots of the past were not initium tier but they were good. You started after initium if I remember correctly so it's not as easy to see but the level of powercreep was not any where near what it ramped up to post-initium

You can post the equation if you want

Z=Profit from Gara 1
X=Profit from Gara 2
Y=Profit from Gara 3

Profit=(((initial investment * (Continued investment * Duration of Investment Continuation)) *Dropout rate)

I made a huge post explaining the exact figures, but my PC crashed and I lost the text. However, the profits originating from those who rolled the NY gara #3 were almost triple that of the other two combined.

Man, if you really want your so hard earned RT to be spent on some silly rigged gambling mechanics then do it on weekly.

Sumtimes mugic huppens like getting a gold in 1 roll

HINT: don't get your hopes too high...that way you won't be devastated if you get a bad roll

Ever since I hit Hexagon Rank I completely embargoed x5 rolls.

x5 Car Crash/Derpwalks are the worst

x1s forever

Tuskin wrote:

Man, if you really want your so hard earned RT to be spent on some silly rigged gambling mechanics then do it on weekly.

Or just roll a gara that has the most amount of favorable rewards, thus increasing your chances of a "good" roll.

Part of the reason I prefer garas with mecha bots, at least if the bot sucks you'll probably at least get some decent parts to mix and match later.

As for weapons well doesn't hurt to have more options, might come in handy for a future bot that might make one of those weapons shine later..

For tune mats well that's not such a bad thing either..if you don't want to bother chasing people down for bazaar trades

Slot protectors always good in a gara too.. Point is just try to see the bright side of the rolls and they won't sting as much.


But moe bots...moe bots can go burn in a fiery pit of despair and torture.. :3