Tuning up

....retardness....totally...I mean wtf....I hear people who fail tune ups even at 95%...if is at 50% means the chance of making it or failing it are equal...yet 3 times in a row...at 85%...my tuning up failed.......is this a glitch or something?

0.3% chance of failing three 85%s in a row.

With your luck to hit those kinds of odds, you should've rolled gara ;o

Always assume the odds are against you. I was tuning random weapons for force for the dispatch mission, and it's like 40 or 50%.

I failed like 12 times and only succeeded 4 times. Doesn't look like 50% to me.


There were some rumors that it's time based. AKA if you succeed on a certain %, chances are you will continue to succeed on that % at least a few more times in a row. And vice versa.

the other day i failed a 95% tune up.... also, i failed 3 65% tune ups in a row.... my friend failed 3 95% tune ups in a row.... so what?

I've failed 18 tunes in a row on C.S. I've also succeeded 12 in a row on Ouka and 10 in a row on Thoarla.

Sure is Law of Small Numbers in here.

if they r in a row so it could be another thing....

I tuned an Accel Saber BS with 2 High Runs and 1 High Run alpha w/o protectors, just alpha harmonics.

Guess what? They all succeeded lol.

i have 7 high boost beta tunes on my Psycho Cluster Neos and failed 3 times, 65%ish sounds correct for me at least

Unless success rates are 100%, you should not expect to succeed 100% of the time. A 50% success rate means you can expect to succeed half the time, but not that you will succeed half the time. For a more visual demonstration of this, try flipping a coin over and over. If you flip it a few thousand times (lawlifyoudothis) you'll notice that you will have close to 50% heads and 50% tails, but on a smaller scale it isn't impossible to get a dozen heads in a row. Unlikely, but possible.

From a more psychological standpoint, I'm sure we're more likely to remember times of particularly good/bad luck. A single failure at 95% is sure to stick out more than the 20 successes you had beforehand.

Raven wrote:

There were some rumors that it's time based. AKA if you succeed on a certain %, chances are you will continue to succeed on that % at least a few more times in a row. And vice versa.

It's amusing that people get so superstitious when it comes to probability. xP

Mac2492 wrote:

It's amusing that people get so superstitious when it comes to probability. xP

thats no wonder considering just how many froglander boosters i needed to get one fucking +1 tech tune with its 40%

i needed laughable 13 boosters for it .... THIRTEEN

i tuned shotguns (normal shop ones) with a single force tune (also 40%) and needed for my 4 shotguns laughable 30 shotguns .. THIRTY

it would be required to write down every result of tuning to get reliable information out of the tuning system, but im quite sure that the percent chances will not match up with what they should, and the failure and succes streaks are way to common for the system to work properly, its like winning a lottery every week

lol, only thing i can think right now... i hate randomness xD

Just you guys watch as I'll somehow manage to fail a tune with the Cosmo Harmonics Omega (100%) from the rare-gara campaign.

O_O Lol I wouldn't be surprised.

Used to tune high run beta/alpha for accel BS 10 times in a row and all fail

But somehow i success 4 slots of connie and 3 slots of feng without any protector or harmonic gamma/beta, all high tune.

Rule of thumb: If you failed twice in a row, walk away and try again another day.

NumeroDoS wrote:

Rule of thumb: If you failed twice in a row, walk away and try again another day.

This.


In general, I tune at most three or four times(hardly ever have the mats for this shit, but...).
I'm only confident with 65% success rates or better. 55% is pushing it. Anything below that needs a goddamn protector unless I have shitloads of that part.