A warning about idol gara

there go my hopes and dreams...
Then again, ppl claimed inventor was bad

Valkyrie wrote:

there go my hopes and dreams...
Then again, ppl claimed inventor was bad

...Who claimed inventor was bad? Inventor was godlike!

Well, people are going to complain about ones where they got unlucky. I totally understand. For example, the Ivis gara was incredibly kind (VA in a x5), but the Inventor was a cruel and heartless monster to me.

There are a few things I want from the Idol Gara, but with no expendable cash or rich doting parents like some people, I don't think it's gonna happen.

ziix wrote:

Is greinaut common too?

Greinaut should be the hardest non-gold to get
It's pretty common though

LXE wrote:

xzpwnz wrote:

It has the worst gold rates thus far
So if you're rolling for a gold you should commit seppuku to save you from despair
Most common are the bombers and weapons

Thanks for warning us xz, you are too kind.

wat

If Xz says it, then I'd bet on it. Not because he's the voice of wisdom, but the sheer number of rolls he's capable of means that Xz can perform statistical infinity.

Kiri's Stat's prof wrote:

For statistics, "infinity" is any number that is "large". To define this, a "large" number is any number which isn't "small". Thus, for the purpose of statistics, N=infinity when N=30.

My own experience with this gara gave me x2 crashes across 10 rolls (2 x5s), x3 of which were the new Greinaut. Though as I just stated this isn't statistically significant.

Thanks, tho, Xz for the warning.

If you want statistics
Out of my 500 rolls I've only gotten 14 golds

Kirika wrote:

~*~actual statistics instead of more Law of Small Numbers garbage~*~

Kirika



I love you.

the good side in me wants to warn stainless.

The kid in me who wants new toys to play with is just gona let stain roll T__T.

boytitan2 wrote:

the good side in me wants to warn stainless.

The kid in me who wants new toys to play with is just gona let stain roll T__T.

You talk as if that'd stop him from rolling

xzpwnz wrote:

If you want statistics
Out of my 500 rolls I've only gotten 14 golds

Wait. Isn't Idol gara RT based?

Midona wrote:

xzpwnz wrote:

If you want statistics
Out of my 500 rolls I've only gotten 14 golds

Wait. Isn't Idol gara RT based?

someone doesn't know who xz is

ot: will roll soon

Midona wrote:

xzpwnz wrote:

If you want statistics
Out of my 500 rolls I've only gotten 14 golds

Wait. Isn't Idol gara RT based?

You already quit, didn't you?
So does it matter?

You only did 500 rolls.

YOu make it sound like u did more.

According to xz, the probability to get a gold is approxiamately 7/250.
A common belief of the community is that among the golds, the star prizes (the prizes everyone is rolling for) the probability to get one is 1/100.
By calculating the probability like this.

P(Win Star Prize) = (7/250) * (1/100) = 7/25000

7 out of 25000 balls will have the top prizes of idol gara. Against these odds, I'm not going to bother.

Mfw 2.8% gold rate.




@LXE Doesn't that imply that 1 out of every 100 gold balls is the top prize? It's more like 1/10 if that.

LXE wrote:

According to xz, the probability to get a gold is approxiamately 7/250.
A common belief of the community is that among the golds, the star prizes (the prizes everyone is rolling for) the probability to get one is 1/100.
By calculating the probability like this.

P(Win Star Prize) = (7/250) * (1/100) = 7/25000

7 out of 25000 balls will have the top prizes of idol gara. Against these odds, I'm not going to bother.

It's a good thing I don't want any of the bots in this gara anyways. This is probably one of the only garapons where I don't want a SINGLE thing out of it.

LXE wrote:

According to xz, the probability to get a gold is approxiamately 7/250.
A common belief of the community is that among the golds, the star prizes (the prizes everyone is rolling for) the probability to get one is 1/100.
By calculating the probability like this.

P(Win Star Prize) = (7/250) * (1/100) = 7/25000

7 out of 25000 balls will have the top prizes of idol gara. Against these odds, I'm not going to bother.

7/12500, if you wanna calculate it that way, since there are 2 outcomes for rare bot collection. 21/25000 for getting a gold bot using that method.

P(chance of super fly) * P(chance of gold) * P(chance of gold being rare)= Your chance of getting rare robo collection bot

Only bot I -must- have is Lala...anything else would be 'meh', especially as I'm sub-par with airs and utterly useless with lands...eh, maybe I'll get lucky soon....

No one notices how good the silvers parts are good.

330 range gattling, too bad the force and the ammo is pretty low. Beam cannon arm is alright, cause you can put it on something M sized, better options exist for pulse missile spam.

Of course, that's considering if you can even manage to pull silver from this mess.

Now that I have the Piercegun, my next target is either tuning mats + slut protectors or the Omega Blaster. Wish me luck. If it's another piercegun... hello my triple Laz commando~

The BD is homing stardust missiles. I'm lvling it up right now to see if the homing gets better. It's half-decent as it is for the one with the cannon.

Intet wrote:

LXE wrote:

7/12500, if you wanna calculate it that way, since there are 2 outcomes for rare bot collection. 21/25000 for getting a gold bot using that method.

P(chance of super fly) * P(chance of gold) * P(chance of gold being rare)= Your chance of getting rare robo collection bot

I am sorry to say that your formula is incorrect because of the following reasons

1. The common belief of getting 1 Star Prize is 1/100 in gold. No need to multiply it for every Star Prize there is.

P(Star Prize) = P(Idol or Bodyguard) = (1/200) + (1/200) = 1/100

2. The chance of Superfly is already incorporated in the chance of gold, since the chance of gold is reliant on the chance of Superfly. xz has already rolled 500 times and only 14 golds have popped up, therefore we can assume that 7/250 balls is gold.

LXE wrote:

Intet wrote:

LXE wrote:

7/12500, if you wanna calculate it that way, since there are 2 outcomes for rare bot collection. 21/25000 for getting a gold bot using that method.

P(chance of super fly) * P(chance of gold) * P(chance of gold being rare)= Your chance of getting rare robo collection bot

I am sorry to say that your formula is incorrect because of the following reasons

1. The common belief of getting 1 Star Prize is 1/100 in gold. No need to multiply it for every Star Prize there is.

P(Star Prize) = P(Idol or Bodyguard) = (1/200) + (1/200) = 1/100

2. The chance of Superfly is already incorporated in the chance of gold, since the chance of gold is reliant on the chance of Superfly. xz has already rolled 500 times and only 14 golds have popped up, therefore we can assume that 7/250 balls is gold.

It's not incorporated because you can get a superfly, and not a gold. The 14 golds are the result of superflies, but that says nothing about the rest of the rolls. The 7/250 probability assumes that every roll has a chance to get a get a gold, and that is simply not true. Roll a durp walk, and you have zero chance of gold, fact. There are several factors at work in the garapon, and they must be accounted for, so your chance of even getting a gold will have to account for the fact that not all your rolls are even able to produce it. In fact none of this takes in account the surprise or the slot system, which can greatly vary your chance of success. Nor does it account for these rolls being 5x, or singles.

I'm not going to argue. End of story.